The Age of Deleveraging: Investment Strategies for a Decade of Slow Growth and Deflation

Summary

While many investors fear a rapid rise in inflation, Gary Shilling argues they should be really preparing for the opposite: an extended period of falling prices.  A top economist with a superb forecasting record, Shilling asserts that slow global growth; increased consumer spending; and efficiencies created by technology will lead to falling prices throughout the economy in the years ahead.  As a result, many investments will suffer, including real estate, commodities, and most stocks.  In The Deflation Beating Portfolio, Shilling says that investors should invest in Treasury bonds, utilities, consumer staples, and some dividend paying stocks.  And investors should avoid commodity, automotive, and consumer durable stocks; precious metals; and real estate.  The book will provide an overview of the U.S. economy since the 1960s juxtaposed against Shillings forecasts demonstrating that Shilling has been generally right about major economic trends since he began forecasting in the early 1980s.  Shilling then will lay out a convincing case why investors need to be prepared for deflation not inflation in the years ahead.